September 29, 2020

BCS Wagering Trends and Wagers

I have not added my selections for any game this year other than to provide analysis. Today I am starting my tips and trends for the rest of the 2009-10 BCS season.

Mississippi vs. South Carolina
Mississippi -4 Over 53.5

Big game tonight in the SEC. Ole Miss is ranked #4 in the country and their schedule is favorable for most of the season. This could be a very tough test for them, as Steve Spurrier is always at his best with the spotlight on him. Should be a great game tonight in Columbia.
give the points and take Mississippi -4

Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin -3

Wisconsin is a mere 3-point favorite at home over Michigan State, and this is clearly a soft line with the Spartans coming off back-to-back losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. The Badgers have been dominant at home. The Badgers have won 4 of their last 5 home games vs. Michigan State. After losing to the Spartans 24-25 on the road last year, you can bet this is a big revenge spot for Wisconsin players who have not forgotten that crushing defeat. The Badgers outrushed the Spartans 281-25 in that game, which are numbers that would usually lead to a Wisconsin victory. Expect similar ground numbers in 2009, only this time around it will be enough for Wisconsin to get their payback at Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Badgers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Wisconsin is quietly 3-0 and everyone is sleeping on this team. Take Wisconsin and lay the points.

UAB vs. Texas A&M
Texas A&M -15

UAB (1-2) heads to Texas A&M (2-0) this Saturday for their second of back-to-back road games. Last Saturday, UAB lost 14-27 at Troy, while dropping to 2-13 S on the road under Head Coach Neil Calloway. While this is the first meeting between these two squads, UAB is a horrible 8-40 SU against BCS teams, including losing 10 straight by an average of 19 points per game. With that loss to Troy, UAB enters this Texas A&M battle on a 3-13 losing streak on the road against non-conference opponents. Texas A&M will be the toughest opponent UAB has faced up until this point in the season and we are laying the points with A&M at home, knowing that they are 4-0 SU & ATS against Conference USA opponents. A&M improves to 3-0 on the year and covers the spread, as we find them at 12-1 ATS as favorites of 27 points or less against a non-conference opponent coming off a double-digit loss. Play of the weekend Texas A&M -15

Tennessee vs. Ohio
Tennessee -21

Take the Tennessee Volunteers ATS, I do not look for a let down from this Vols team that had a chance to upset Florida last week instead I look for them to dominate this Ohio Bobcats team Saturday. The Vols defense is extremely solid with opponents averaging just 197.3 yard per game against them this season and only 16.3 ppg. The Vols have had to play a lot tougher teams than the Bobcats so far this season and yet the Bobcats numbers are not good at all offensively averaging just 103.3 rypg and just 303 total yards per game this season. The Bobcats will not be able to move the ball against this Vols defense and the Vols offense will be able to score at will so I look for Tennessee to cover by at least 4 touchdowns Saturday. The Vols are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after they have allow more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game. The Bobcats depend on moving the ball through the air but the Vols defense has only allowed 88.3 pypg this season including just 115 passing yards against #1 Florida last week. Take the Tennessee Volunteers and lay the 21

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