October 20, 2020

Why will Baltimore win today?

New England has not lost at home in a long time.. November 2006 to be exact. They still have Brady and Moss and Belichick is still at the helm. So why is New England going to lose today?

Baltimore comes in with a 9-7 record and really with the old Defense that has made them the most feared team in the NFL. But what they have is the #3 Total defense in the NFL, #5 against the rush and #8 against the pass. They will load the box against the likes of Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Lawrence Maroney.  Maroney is just what Baltimore loves.. a guy who cant hold on to the ball, Taylor hasn’t played but in 5 games and Morris has been banged up. A nice Combo when healthy, but they will not be as effective because of a missing WR.

Losing Wes Welker, as much as NE wants to spin it as just a minor setback, will clamp down on Moss and while NE used to have the effective weopons at the 3-4 WR spot those days are over. Jabar Gaffney is gone.. he’s brutal, but he fit the system, Terry Glenn was let go mid season, and rookie, an ex-QB 7th round pick out of Kent St. , will be the slot man in a Playoff game. Dont forget that Sam Aikin is a 4th round pick in 2003 who couldn’t make it in Buffalo and Mathew Slater.. yes HOF Jackie Slater’s son, who was an 8th rounder in 2008 as a DB is also there.

Let’s not forget Tom Brady is still rehabbing the knee cus everyone knows that it is a year to get healthy to play and 2 years to get back to normal. Not to mention his broken ribs, and digits, and lately if you have had any old HS injuries and you live in the south where its been cold as hell.. you are hurting because of the cold. It will be in the high teens with a 15-20 mph wind..

I like the Offensive line and Ray Rice as well as the demeanor of Flacco. Harbaugh is a good coach and the last 2 times Baltimore played NE they had them by the cajones and as Denny Greene once said, “…we let ’em off the hook”.  The Ravens will run the ball with their NFL ranked #5 rush O and the overall #13 Offense.. Think of it this way.. Arizona is ranked behind them in Rushing and Overall O.

I am betting Baltimore to cover +4

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