December 21, 2014

D2B AFC/NFC Championship Pix

Today in my opinion is the best day of football outside of Super Bowl Sunday. Essentially you have Super Bowl games in one day and with less commercial interruption. Here are my selections for the AFC and NFC Championships.

Game 1 has the mystique of being the longest rivalry in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers visit their ole nemesis the Chicago Bears. Forget the fact that it will be 15 degrees with a wind chill of 0 and that in 2 games these teams have scored a total of 50 points this year. The over is set at 42.5 and Rodgers and the Packers have been roling and Chicago put up a lot of points last week so it’s going over, right? Don’t fool yourselves as this game will be just like the other two and dominated by defense.  The only question is which team is going to come away with the hard fought victory and cover the spread? The Pack is a 3.5 point favorite and is playing their third straight road playoff game. If they win they will become the third team in NFL History to get to the Super Bowl by winning all 3 roadies. The other two teams were the ’05 Steelers and ’07 Giants both of them went on to win the Super Bowl.  The Packers defense is as healthy as they can be and are playing like the best in the NFL and they have the hottest QB in the Playoffs. But, the Bears are fighters and they keep surprising everyone. In what the Bears fans call the biggest game in their history I am leaning on receiving the 3.5 pts. I will be hoping that a late TD or FG will give me the spread, but I still believe the Packers will come out of this with a victory and move on to the Super Bowl.

Take the 3.5 points with the Bears covering

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The Nasty Bowl pits the Steelers against the outspoken NY Jets.  This is a game that everyone believes will be a blood bath. Ben Roethlisberger will find away to will his team to victory and a Mark Sanchez mistake will provide the needed spread buster and the over 38 to happen.

Give the 4 points and take the Steelers to cover

Favorite Week in the NFL

This is the week in the 2010 NFL season where you have a lot of favorites who will cover. The year has been littered with parity, but that streak is over, at least for this week.  Here are some monster selections

CHIEFS (-7) over Cardinals
I’m gonna continue to ride the Chiefs at home until they lose. I’m a big Todd Haley fan even though his Chiefs were embarrassed last week in Denver. Take the Chiefs.
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Ravens (-10.5) over PANTHERS
When you can lay 10.5 points against a 31-year-old QB with no career starts you have to do it.  Last week Brian St. Pierre was playing Mr. Mom, but this week he is lunch for Ray Lewis. Take the Ravens.
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SAINTS (-11.5) over Seahawks
The game I have been waiting for all season is finally here. I’m excited for the Reggie Bush/Pete Carroll reunion. During their postgame handshake, they will hire a third party to give Reggie $100K in cash while Pete looks the other way. Take the Saints.
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Falcons (-3) over RAMS
You’re a potential # 1 seed coming off 10 days of rest. These are the games which show the league that they are looking up at you. Atlanta comes in and crushes the Rams.

Super Prop XLIV

Super Bowl weekend with the biggest game of the year is only 76 hours away which means prop bets are out and ready for wagering.

So when you go to your friends house for the once a year family football function, where going to work on the most called-in-sick day isn’t a priority, think about the little fun things that make this game a real spectacle.

The proposition bets are limitless in this game with anything from Manning total pass yards, first catch of game, FG attempts, how long will it take to sing the Star Spangled Banner, over/under how many times the camera will show a Kardashian which is currently set at 4 1/2.  These bets to me are so much more fun than having the Colts -6 or the over under. This is the time for picking squares and having some friend of a friend’s wife win the fourth quarter and final score and win a few hundy.  I mean c’mon, isn’t it always the person who isn’t as passionate as degenerates like me that wins these things? Yet we always have the glass 1/2 full view until about the end of the first quarter when you know they will never end with a 2 or a 5 as a score.

So might as well have some fun and get on the props like these lil diddies:

Score first TD = Collie +900, Meachum +1200

Manning Over 2 1/2 TDs = -125

First Offensive Holding Penalty = Scott Lilja +800

Matt Stover under 1 1/2 FGs = -105

and the standard for me every year.. Tails Never Fails!

Will Americas Team Win Today?

I have been spot on during the playoffs except for the Green Bay game which was a wagering loss, but it gave me hope the playoffs were not going to be as bad as the initial three Wild Card games we had to endure.

This weeks spotlight game is Dallas at Minnesota.  The Vikes and their 40 year old QB with all kinds of playoff experience meet the hottest team other than San Diego (which means whales vagina) in Dallas. Tony Romo has essentially been playing playoff football for a month and he and his teammates have come away with an A grade.

Since the Cowboys’ loss at home Dec 13 against the Chargers 20-17 they have reeled off 4 straight wins against the likes of @ New Orleans, twice against PhilLY (who at the time many thought were the NFC favorites) and lowly Washington. Its not that they won, but how they won. They have outscored their opponents 89-31 over this span including back to back shutouts which is the first time they have done so in franchise history.  They won for the first time since Nov 1st by scoring more than 26 points so although on paper they have have looked solid their offense is still a little suspect. That being said who needs offense when you have a defense only giving up an average of a little more than 15 points per game.

The Vikings defense was getting riddled late in the year by the likes of Chicago, ‘Zona and Carolina,  but still have similar overall D stats to the ‘Boys. What we have here is a game where the defenses will be the talk of the game and whoever doesn’t turn the ball over will be the victors. I know novel concept, but here is the difference. Dallas has issues on the road and Minnesota is 8-0 at home. The most points Dallas scored on the road was 31 game 1 at Tampa and their next highest was 26 in mid-October in OT against KC.  Not exactly a juggernaut.

Farve is playing what quite possibly could be his last game and if so he and Kurt Warner will be giving us speeches 5 years from now in Canton.  Brett needs to get rid of the ball quickly and hope his O-line gives him the 3 step drop time needed to carve out some yards so AP can then provide a solid runnig game and force Dallas to respect the rush. Remember this, Dallas has not played a team with a serious running game since New Orleans and Brees threw 45 times so the rush was not in play and only 2 teams in the NFL who are in the top 10 in rushing (Carolina and Saints). Yes they beat them but we still haven’t seen the defense go up against a team like the Vikings on the road and win.

I am betting the Vikings to cover -2 1/2

Why will Baltimore win today?

New England has not lost at home in a long time.. November 2006 to be exact. They still have Brady and Moss and Belichick is still at the helm. So why is New England going to lose today?

Baltimore comes in with a 9-7 record and really with the old Defense that has made them the most feared team in the NFL. But what they have is the #3 Total defense in the NFL, #5 against the rush and #8 against the pass. They will load the box against the likes of Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Lawrence Maroney.  Maroney is just what Baltimore loves.. a guy who cant hold on to the ball, Taylor hasn’t played but in 5 games and Morris has been banged up. A nice Combo when healthy, but they will not be as effective because of a missing WR.

Losing Wes Welker, as much as NE wants to spin it as just a minor setback, will clamp down on Moss and while NE used to have the effective weopons at the 3-4 WR spot those days are over. Jabar Gaffney is gone.. he’s brutal, but he fit the system, Terry Glenn was let go mid season, and rookie, an ex-QB 7th round pick out of Kent St. , will be the slot man in a Playoff game. Dont forget that Sam Aikin is a 4th round pick in 2003 who couldn’t make it in Buffalo and Mathew Slater.. yes HOF Jackie Slater’s son, who was an 8th rounder in 2008 as a DB is also there.

Let’s not forget Tom Brady is still rehabbing the knee cus everyone knows that it is a year to get healthy to play and 2 years to get back to normal. Not to mention his broken ribs, and digits, and lately if you have had any old HS injuries and you live in the south where its been cold as hell.. you are hurting because of the cold. It will be in the high teens with a 15-20 mph wind..

I like the Offensive line and Ray Rice as well as the demeanor of Flacco. Harbaugh is a good coach and the last 2 times Baltimore played NE they had them by the cajones and as Denny Greene once said, “…we let ‘em off the hook”.  The Ravens will run the ball with their NFL ranked #5 rush O and the overall #13 Offense.. Think of it this way.. Arizona is ranked behind them in Rushing and Overall O.

I am betting Baltimore to cover +4

D2B NFL Pix Week 17

We are now into the last weekend of the regular season of the NFL. Where did the year go?

Fantasy championships are over and all we have left is the most difficult week of wagering of the year. Why? Because we don’t know who is playing, how much they are going to play, or whose backups are better than the other team.  This is like week four of the preseason.

So with the best analysis I can muster here are my final regular season NFL pix for the year.

Colts @ Buffalo -7 O/U 32.5

We saw what the Colts are intending to do as we watched them pull the starters last week up 5 and with an undefeated season on the line. It is 10 degrees windy and snowing in Buffalo and the Colts backup QB is their third stringer. Sure he had the reps this week, but we don’t see Wayne, Clark or any other solid player getting any time in this one. Look for TO to end his career with the Bills on a high note as he auditions for another team to play for next year.

I am betting the Under 32.5

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New England @ Houston -7

This is a dome game and a one where although New England can become the 3rd seed and get a home playoff game I just don’t see Brady and others playing much if at all. Houston remains in playoff contention entering the last regular-season game for the first time in franchise history. The Texans are competing primarily with Denver, Baltimore and the New York Jets for one of the two AFC wild-card spots. To get in the Texans need a victory and two of those teams to lose Sunday. This is also Kubiak’s Alamo. Stranger things have happened on the final day.

I am betting Houston -7 to cover

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Steelers @ Miami +3.5

There is a possibility that Ricky Williams is not playing in this one. He will at least give it a go with a shot of cortisone and some maybe a spliff, but one for medicinal purposes only of course. If not look for Henne to pass for 400 yards and hope for some defensive stops to get a win and keep the Steelers out of the playoffs.

I am betting Miami +3.5 to cover

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NY Giants @ Minnesota -8

The Giants have totally given up. Brandon Jacobs and most of the defensive core are out and Bradshaw is running on 2 fractured feet. This is a statement game for the Vikes as they need some sort of momentum going into the playoffs not to mention they need a win to potentially get the #2 seed and a bye next week. Easy pickens here in the dome where Favre is always at home.

I am betting Vikings -8 to cover

D2B NFL Week 10 Pix

This is the final week teams are on bye since the first week in October so we will have a full slate of games starting again next week. Last week I made you money for the first time in 3 weeks going 2-1 in the NFL, but as Vegas says you need to make your coin in college and watch the pros with a lil taste attached.

dolphinschick
Miami -10 v Tampa Bay

This one the boyz in Vegas got totally wrong so don’t tell anyone or it goes to 12 in a hurry. You wont need to worry Miami will score and at will. Lets talk shall we? Tampa lost its last 11 before beating up a Green Bay team qho appeared to have given up. All the Bucs skill players are hurt and really they are not that good anyway. Miami is chomping at the bit for a big win and this week and the Wildcat goes off.

I am betting Miami at home -10 to cover

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Minnesota -16.5 v Detroit

Yes the big spreads lately have not covered, but I on the other hand usually bet against them well. C’mon, Minnesota is not what everybody thinks they are on D because they are only 18th overall in total D and 21st in passing. We are talking Detroit who they already beat, but barely covered by a hook in September winning by 14. Minny is coming off a bye I think Brett Fv-er-era will throw to a healthy TE Schiancoe, WR Berrian, WR Rice and don’t forget Adrian Peterson all day long. Stafford just threw 5 INT;s last game and isn’t healthy so this game is a wipeout.

I am betting Minnesota at home -16.5 to cover

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Jets -7 v Jacksonville

The J-E-T-S are coming off a bye week and I am sure after losing 4 of 5 they did not take too many days off. Jets are 4-4 and in need of a win so the bye has to help the Braylon/Sanchez connection plus it had to get a lot of guys healthy at the right time. The D of the New York Jets is fine and should do well against the Jags. Jericho Cotchery is now back so that opens the door for the great running game and play action which Sanchez grew up on at USC. MJD is nicked up and Torry Holt is 100 years old so the NYJ defense ranked #2 overall should do the trick.

I am betting the Jets at home to cover -7

The Upsets Keep Rolling On in the NFL

After going 4-1 in college football yesterday we are going to try and get out of the NFL funk we have been in recently.

Atlanta -9.5 v Washington

Atlanta is struggling to find an identity and consistency while Washington is trying to just win a game. The Falcons are coming back home after getting beat the last 2 weeks in Dallas and on Monday night at New Orleans. The Falcons are banged up on both sides of the ball and are in a short week while Washington is coming off a bye.  We all know about Washington and the shenanigans going on there, but the Redskin D is not the issue. They are 2-5 and have lost by an average of 6 points which says they are in all the games.

I am betting Washington +9.5 on the road

washington-redskins2

Jacksonville -7 v KC Chiefs

Last time we saw KC they were at home getting manhandled by San Diego which we know means Whales Vagina.  Anyway, Jacksonville got beat up by the Titans last week for their first win of the year. Jacksonville has given up over 30+ pts per game in their losses and the wins aren’t that good either. KC is bad and if you count preseason are 1-10 for the year. They did pick up a definite need at WR by signing Chris Chambers from the waiver wire and he will help Duane Bowe get open plus with LJ benched for this game Jamal Charles and Kolbe Smith will carry the load.  The Jags will counter with MJD and Mike Sims-Walker but you never know what you get with Sims-Walker. Look for Cassell to throw against the bad pass defense of JVille and make this game a close one.

I am betting KC to cover +7 on the road

Houston +8 v Colts

The Colts defense is in a hospital ward as they have now lost Bob Sanders (only played 50% of games since 2004), Tyjuan Hagler, and Marlin Jackson for the year. This week Indy doesn’t have the services of Adam Vinatieri and Kelvin Hayden plus they may not have Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon or Donald Brown.  Houston did lose Owen Daniels last week for the year who has been a big part of the offense so they will need to rely on Kevin Walter, Andre Jackson and the 3 headed RB monster in Slaton, Moats and Brown. The Houston D had a rough start, particularly against the run, and allowed an NFL-worst 205 yards rushing a game in the first three games. They’ve turned it around since then, giving up about 58 yards a game through their last five.  Although the Colts have beaten the Texans 14-15 times and they have the MVP at the half way point in Peyton Manning they can’t play defense so the Colts will be upset in their own house. With a win they go 6-3 for the first time in their franchise history.

I am betting the Texans to cover +8 on the road.

D2B NFL Pix Week 7

Carolina -7 vs Buffalo

This is a game between the most and least penalized teams in the NFL. Buffalo by far is penalized the most in the league and the Panthers have only been penalized 25 times. Both teams can’t score and there 25th and 26th position in overall offense shows they can’t. The Panthers are dead last in TO Ratio and Jake DelHomme is not the same player. Buffalo has their own issues as Trent edwards is out and so is starting safeties D. Whitner and B. Scott along with starting right tackle J. Scott. Fitzpatrick doesn’t check down as often as Edwards and got Lee Evans more involved last week, but T.O. still hasnt had a game to speak of this year. Panthers running combo DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should have a pretty solid game this week going against the league’s worst run defense. Also keep in mind Julius Peppers has 4.0 sacks the past two games and seems to be hitting his stride. This is the second of back to back roadies for Buffalo and although I don’t like the Panthers giving points to anyone I have to think Steve Smith coming off a 1 catch week will take advantage of the Bills depleted secondary.

I am betting the Panthers to Cover -7 at home
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baltimorecolts53-78
Colts -13.5 @ Rams

You give Peyton Manning two weeks to prepare, heck give him 2 days and the Colts are ready to roll. The Rams do not have a starting wide receiver on the field because they are all beaten up and Steven Jackson can only do so much. Marc Bulger is not in the system that made him an All Pro and his back feels the turf more than any QB in the league because the Rams O-line is horrible. Gimme a Dome, Manning, Reggie Wayne and a 30th ranked Ram Defense (27th against the pass) and I see 40 points by the Colts.

I am betting Colts -13.5 on the Road

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Atlanta +4 at Dallas
atlanta_falcons
This line is very strange. Atlanta has a better record, is 4th in NFL total Defense, 3rd in Special teams, Beat Miami, SF and Chicago and is getting 4 pts at the 8th Wonder of the world. Dallas has only beaten Carolina, Tampa and squeaked by Kansas City in OT and all 3 teams have a combined 3-14 record. Matt Ryan runs the offense like a well oiled machine and Dallas has no real ‘go-to’ guy since the popcorn maker left for Buffalo. I am certain Dallas with a bye week under their belt got a little healthier and will come out with bravado, but that won’t last. Atlanta is effecient and they don’t make foolish mistakes as does Dallas ranked 23rd in TO Ratio while Atlanta is #7 in the NFL. We all know that turnovers lose games.

I am betting Atlanta +4 on the Road