October 23, 2014

D2B AFC/NFC Championship Pix

Today in my opinion is the best day of football outside of Super Bowl Sunday. Essentially you have Super Bowl games in one day and with less commercial interruption. Here are my selections for the AFC and NFC Championships.

Game 1 has the mystique of being the longest rivalry in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers visit their ole nemesis the Chicago Bears. Forget the fact that it will be 15 degrees with a wind chill of 0 and that in 2 games these teams have scored a total of 50 points this year. The over is set at 42.5 and Rodgers and the Packers have been roling and Chicago put up a lot of points last week so it’s going over, right? Don’t fool yourselves as this game will be just like the other two and dominated by defense.  The only question is which team is going to come away with the hard fought victory and cover the spread? The Pack is a 3.5 point favorite and is playing their third straight road playoff game. If they win they will become the third team in NFL History to get to the Super Bowl by winning all 3 roadies. The other two teams were the ’05 Steelers and ’07 Giants both of them went on to win the Super Bowl.  The Packers defense is as healthy as they can be and are playing like the best in the NFL and they have the hottest QB in the Playoffs. But, the Bears are fighters and they keep surprising everyone. In what the Bears fans call the biggest game in their history I am leaning on receiving the 3.5 pts. I will be hoping that a late TD or FG will give me the spread, but I still believe the Packers will come out of this with a victory and move on to the Super Bowl.

Take the 3.5 points with the Bears covering

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The Nasty Bowl pits the Steelers against the outspoken NY Jets.  This is a game that everyone believes will be a blood bath. Ben Roethlisberger will find away to will his team to victory and a Mark Sanchez mistake will provide the needed spread buster and the over 38 to happen.

Give the 4 points and take the Steelers to cover

Weekend Pigskin Pix by D2B

The last time I posted picks I went 4-for-4. I don’t expect to go 100% this weekend, but I got a good feeling about these games. Here are my college football and NFL picks for the weekend:

Friday Night:

Illinois goes into Fresno State for either embarrassment or to solidify their bowl hopes.  Both teams are going to a bowl, but this game will have a say in how much money they get in their bowl game. Both offenses are potent and will put up points in what should be a shootout.

Take the Over 58 1/2

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The MAC Championship is actually a pretty fun game to watch. No weather issues because the game is in Ford Field Dome. Northern Illinois comes in winners of 9 in-a-row including last weeks 70-3 romp over Eastern Michigan a. NI has averaged 46 points during their winning streak and I don’t think Miami Ohio can stop them considering they give up over 330 yards per game.

Give the 17 1/2 and take Northern Illinois

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Saturday Games:

Rutgers is horrible and West Virginia is hoping to get into the Orange Bowl as the Big ‘Least’ representative.

Give the 21 pts and take West Virginia

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Boise is pissed and they will take their anger out on Utah State on the Blue Turf.

Give the 39 1/2 pts and take Boise State

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Nevada got the big win against Boise last week and now must try and come down from that high against a Louisiana Tech team that can score as well.

Take the 9 1/2 pts and La Tech at home

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Sunday NFL action:

KC at home versus a Denver team that got worked at home by Sam Bradford. Easy call.

Give the 9 pts and take KC

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Troy Smith versus Aaron Rogers. Umm, no contest in frigid Lambeau.

Give the 10 pts and take Green Bay

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Indy can’t stop anyone and they can’t run the ball. Dallas comes in with a new swagger and will get after Peyton so he will have another interception laden game.

Take the 5 1/2 pts and Dallas

Favorite Week in the NFL

This is the week in the 2010 NFL season where you have a lot of favorites who will cover. The year has been littered with parity, but that streak is over, at least for this week.  Here are some monster selections

CHIEFS (-7) over Cardinals
I’m gonna continue to ride the Chiefs at home until they lose. I’m a big Todd Haley fan even though his Chiefs were embarrassed last week in Denver. Take the Chiefs.
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Ravens (-10.5) over PANTHERS
When you can lay 10.5 points against a 31-year-old QB with no career starts you have to do it.  Last week Brian St. Pierre was playing Mr. Mom, but this week he is lunch for Ray Lewis. Take the Ravens.
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SAINTS (-11.5) over Seahawks
The game I have been waiting for all season is finally here. I’m excited for the Reggie Bush/Pete Carroll reunion. During their postgame handshake, they will hire a third party to give Reggie $100K in cash while Pete looks the other way. Take the Saints.
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Falcons (-3) over RAMS
You’re a potential # 1 seed coming off 10 days of rest. These are the games which show the league that they are looking up at you. Atlanta comes in and crushes the Rams.

NFL Week 3 Best Bets by D2B

As Week 3 hits in the NFL we are heading into uncharted waters for some perennial Playoff teams. The Vikings, 49ers and Cowgirls must win or their hopes for a playoff spot are gone.  There are also some surprising undefeated teams like the KC Chiefs and Tampa Bay.  KC is at home vs the 49ers who are coming off a gut wrenching Monday Night loss to the Saints while the Buccaneers are home against the Steelers who have the best defense in all of the NFL.

Aside from these story lines I have 3 bets that are certain to enhance your offshore account:

New England -16 vs Buffalo

New England is coming off a pitiful loss to the Jets last week in Jersey. The Pats will look to pad their stats against a Bills team with a new QB, soft Defense and young offensive line. Brady and Moss connect a few times along with Welker catching 10 balls and the Patriots score at will.

Prediction: New England -16 will cover

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Baltimore -13 vs Browns

I really don’t see anything that can stop a pissed off Raven team that blew their game last week against Cincy. They started the season facing 2 great D’s in the Jets and Bengals and now face a Cleveland team that is awful. The Ravens offense has been waiting for this opportunity and should score a lot. Cleveland will never sniff the goal line unless Cribbs brings back a punt return.

Prediction: Baltimore -13 covers

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Indianapolis -7 @ Denver

Peyton is firing on all cylinders and the Denver D is not prepared to handle this type of offense.  Indy’s D is much improved over last year and will halt any scheme Orton has available.

Prediction: Indy -7 will cover

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Other strong plays:  Cincy -4 & J’Ville +5

R U Ready for Some NFL?

Here are the unconventional picks for Week 1 in the NFL.

How many of you are in a suicide pool and looking for answers? Well, I totally laid out in my ‘Big $’ pool and chose New Orleans so I’m on to week two. I couldn’t play just one entry though so my second one is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

While we are on the subject take Jax -3 over Tim Tebow, errr I mean Denver because they have no defense and no running backs. The Jags are loaded with vets including a top 3 pick in fantasy player in MJD. Garrard is a a vet and the WR core is not too bad. Can you name the QB, RB, WR tandem in Denver? Exactly so Jville rolls.

Prediction Jacksonville -3

Detroit is at the Bears. Jay Cutler still hasn’t got it and Matt Stafford has a top 3 WR in Calvin Johnson along with Jahvid Best as a RB. Take the 6.5 and run to the bank!

Prediction Lions +6.5

The Niners are going to the playoffs this year so put the mortgage on SF as they roll.

Prediction SF -4

D2B NFL Pix Week 7

Carolina -7 vs Buffalo

This is a game between the most and least penalized teams in the NFL. Buffalo by far is penalized the most in the league and the Panthers have only been penalized 25 times. Both teams can’t score and there 25th and 26th position in overall offense shows they can’t. The Panthers are dead last in TO Ratio and Jake DelHomme is not the same player. Buffalo has their own issues as Trent edwards is out and so is starting safeties D. Whitner and B. Scott along with starting right tackle J. Scott. Fitzpatrick doesn’t check down as often as Edwards and got Lee Evans more involved last week, but T.O. still hasnt had a game to speak of this year. Panthers running combo DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should have a pretty solid game this week going against the league’s worst run defense. Also keep in mind Julius Peppers has 4.0 sacks the past two games and seems to be hitting his stride. This is the second of back to back roadies for Buffalo and although I don’t like the Panthers giving points to anyone I have to think Steve Smith coming off a 1 catch week will take advantage of the Bills depleted secondary.

I am betting the Panthers to Cover -7 at home
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baltimorecolts53-78
Colts -13.5 @ Rams

You give Peyton Manning two weeks to prepare, heck give him 2 days and the Colts are ready to roll. The Rams do not have a starting wide receiver on the field because they are all beaten up and Steven Jackson can only do so much. Marc Bulger is not in the system that made him an All Pro and his back feels the turf more than any QB in the league because the Rams O-line is horrible. Gimme a Dome, Manning, Reggie Wayne and a 30th ranked Ram Defense (27th against the pass) and I see 40 points by the Colts.

I am betting Colts -13.5 on the Road

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Atlanta +4 at Dallas
atlanta_falcons
This line is very strange. Atlanta has a better record, is 4th in NFL total Defense, 3rd in Special teams, Beat Miami, SF and Chicago and is getting 4 pts at the 8th Wonder of the world. Dallas has only beaten Carolina, Tampa and squeaked by Kansas City in OT and all 3 teams have a combined 3-14 record. Matt Ryan runs the offense like a well oiled machine and Dallas has no real ‘go-to’ guy since the popcorn maker left for Buffalo. I am certain Dallas with a bye week under their belt got a little healthier and will come out with bravado, but that won’t last. Atlanta is effecient and they don’t make foolish mistakes as does Dallas ranked 23rd in TO Ratio while Atlanta is #7 in the NFL. We all know that turnovers lose games.

I am betting Atlanta +4 on the Road